Hi Brian,
To answer your question, as to whether the "uncertainties" are
factored into the stock price of AMAT and the other semi-mfg
stocks, they are to a degree, but there is still more downward
pressure to come. For a while analysts and other sages were
suggesting that the events and economic issues from Pac-Rim
economies were not "significant" and were attempting to downplay
the issues or else, like the ostrich, were hiding their heads
in the sand in an attempt to keep from seeing the seriousness
of the reality of the situation.
IMHO, still a better than 50-50 chance that there will be
significant negative impact on American companies earnings
that do large volumes of business in Pac-Rim countries. Those
countries and their high tech companies will be living on starvation
rations for a while as they reign in expenses in an attempt to
get things under control. When you don't have money to spend
on prime rib and wine, you survive by settling for peanut butter
and water until your fortunes change, at least you are eating
until economic times get better.
The full impact of the Asian econmic conservatism and its affect on
US companies has not been realized totally yet. The picture will
be clearer in April, after 1st quarter results show the impact to
earnings for American tech companies. In the meantime AMAT will
lanquish and likely decrease, as the markets decrease in value
for a couple of months. There will be spikes, but no astounding
price appreciation, short term.
Just my opinion,
BB |
