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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 284.15-0.7%Dec 3 3:59 PM EST
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To: Doren who wrote (162969)12/15/2013 3:33:12 PM
From: MGV1 Recommendation

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HerbVic

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Nobody knows.
I agree and that is why I argue that CM is not in Apple's share price. Everyone realizes that no one knows. That uncertainty leads to conservative estimates. That is why the forecasts that exist are more in line with a fraction of NTT Docomo or Verizon. 10 million in one year? Even 17 million. That is manifest conservatism that is driven by uncertainty driven by an acknowledgement that "no one knows."

The rationale for the conservatism is well known. China is a different market. CM "only" has 175 million broadband subscribers. Apple is too expensive for China.

The more they think they are going to make on each phone the more aggressive they'll be.
I agree but, imv, what they are going to make on each phone is a function of how much data each phone "sells" ie enables. That might take a few quarters for CM to fully get it. That is why I would not be surprised to see aggressive promotions and subsidies a couple of quarters away. I think it is more likely that promotions and subsidies will begin smaller and grow larger than the reverse.
And many times Apple things like this take a little while to snowball.
Exactly.
The other thing I think is, there is so much pent up expectation about this deal, Apple can't just do well it might just have to hit it out of the park.
They will. I just don't expect it will be immediate. It is why, I am moving my short term floor down from 555ish to 540ish. It will be a set up for greater share price gains and performance weeks and months ahead at the cost of some near term performance.

Then again, I could be wrong. ;)
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