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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: HH who wrote (4739)12/10/1997 2:12:00 PM
From: Big Dog  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
Heyward -- I know that you are trying to understand what forces drive these prices, but you can't measure every aspect of every "outside" factor. Oil ain't going to 15, I don't give a hoot what those London folks say. It may spike down, but it won't stay. (Also note that Light Sweet Crude -- also known as West Texas Intermediate -- sells for about $2 a barrel more than Brent North Sea crude. So if when they say 15-16, that equates to 17-18 in the way WE here think of oil prices. Not much change is it?)

While you are looking for something to worry about, you should monitor the price of natural gas. This has just as much, if not more, impact of drilling as does the price of oil. I bet you (not to pick on you) don't even know what the price of natural gas is right now.

I don't mean to be harsh if it sounds that way, but my way of doing business to try to look at the micro instead of the macro. Yes you need a good "feel" for the macro, but get the feel then toss it aside and don't worry about it.

Bottom line -- the oil service sector is making alot of money for now and for the forseeable future. Period. A person can come up with a gillion "what ifs", but every day these companies bank accounts get bigger.
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