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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (181729)12/15/2013 8:04:36 PM
From: Jim P.  Read Replies (1) of 206330
 
Not that you need agreement Ed,. $4.50 gas competes with oil at $95 plus for drilling dollars or strip. There will be a market response and right now it is Henry Hub premium is going to disappear in the Marcellus as pipelines reverse flows.

The "flood" of gas will not happen beyond the super competitive areas that will produce at $3 gas.

This market will go into shortage "another name is "substitution" particularly coal" at some point.

Lots of ways to play it but bottom at sub $3 gas will be another buying opportunity in names that can ride out a "that" half of a year IMO if it happens.

I will watch for sticky demand and slow to move supply in natural gas.

This board has a statement in the moderator post worth repeating "it is the price of oil stupid!"

This will apply to natural gas as associated gas will/should become the low cost producer but never the marginal producer.

I think when ethane is more economical as a feedstock than to be burned with natural gas it may be a turning point....2017/2018 area but I am not married to that.

Natural gas is now a "supply response play not a shortage play" as it was for years.

Oil in north America may be the same if sweet crude is not allowed to be exported.

Play the swings between over supply to refineries or under supply is still a few years off but without exports of sweet crude there will be a wall of demand.

Lots of time to play and always interesting.
My 2 cents,
jim

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