I get half the Holiday's at home, but must be back in the Hospital on the 26th, so New Year's will be observed by watching the ball drop from my room, unless I really luck out.
As for GNVC, I was reading the original Novartis partnership announcement, with over $200 million in milestones, I think investors could be pleasantly surprised by the size of next payment, or group of payments.
I say this because it's possible that their are several milestones which result in the first patient being dosed in the trial, or it could be just one.
I've seen milestones in other companies for any of the following:
1. Filing of the IND with the FDA.
2. Acceptance of the IND.
3. Approval of the IND.
4. Initiating recruitment of the initial participants in the trial.
5. Initiating the trial.
I'm sure their are others that could be named as well. If we sum what could be paid in the above, I believe we should see at least $10 million, and perhaps as much as $30 million. Of course we don't know how the partnership is structured, but I've got to believe at least a third of the milestones should be paid by the time the drug is approved, that would be roughly $70 million. Of course it could be a greater percentage by approval, I just don't think it would be less than a third.
Once in trials the milestones are normally limited to roughly the following:
1. Completion of Phase I and/or initiation of Phase II.
2. Completion of Phase II and/or initiation of Phase III.
3. Completion of Phase III and/or Filing an NDA or BLA for approval.
Of course their could be others, but these seem common to most companies. With the O/S as low as it is, $10 to $30 million in perhaps the next six months or so ought to get investors excited.
Happy Holiday's All,
Gary |
