In all seriousness, for me with 25 wins to catch Tom, the leader with 31, if he flipped a coin and went 8-8, I'd have to go 14-2 just to tie. Furthermore, regarding random chance, the more times you flip a coin, the less volatility vs. flipping it less. In other words, if you flip a coin three times (three picks), there is a much greater chance you'll draw an 0-fer (go 0-3) than if you flip the coin, say, 16 times. When you are leading, volatility is your enemy. And if you consider picking as pure skill, once again, the more games you choose from the more chance you have to demonstrate your skill. An analogy here would be that a crappy hitter in baseball has a much better chance of going one for three (.333) in a game than doing that for an entire season or even perhaps 16 at-bats. My point being that, mathamatically, for sure tossing in all the games allows someone way behind to make a miraculous last-second comeback, but the odds actually favor the person leading.
- Jeff |
