The stock was moving up nicely until they announced that N901-DM1 was being taken out of trial, this decision is probably one they should have made nearly a decade ago. I say this not because it had no chance, but rather because this was a drug based on IMGN's oldest, and least controlled linker. It's the same linker that was in the original T-DM1 which in some cases had as many as 10 or more DM1 molecules attached, and in some cases as few as one. N901 might very well do outstanding things when using one of the newer linkers, and perhaps DM1, or perhaps one of IMGN's other DM family, or even some that aren't in that family that they've developed, but as Mitch used to say, are not yet ready for Prime Time, so they've not been discussed.
AdamF did his hatchet job on IMGN when the trial stoppage was announced, no doubt working with Shorts who can profit nicely when a stock is brought down. This should have been a non-event as they have so many other drugs in trial, but AdamF put that doubt out there, and it acted to his article.
Who do you believe, AdamF, or the likes of Amgen, Sanofi Aventis, Roche, Biotest, Novartis, etc, etc, who've all partnered with IMGN and have, or are soon to have drugs using IMGN's technology in trials. Their is currently speculation that Biotest will be taking their drug to Phase II and IMGN will take it's right to Opt In, I'm uncertain, as I believe they get another chance, and while it's more expensive later, they could be financially better positioned to do it then. The Opt In would have them split the U.S. market, roughly 30% of the world market, evenly with Biotest, as I understand it.
In just over 7 months we should have T-DM1 sales for the first half of 2014, I believe the increase in sales by then will really impress investors.
I had previously indicated that I thought IMGN should have reformulated T-DM1 years ago, the problem of course is the cost of rerunning trial previously run with the old drug. That cost could be substantially lower if the drug works better, a big part of the cost of the N901-DM1 trial costs were they ran so long as the drug was just barely effective enough to continue the trial. A new formulation could be very effective, but we won't know unless the company decides to do it at some time. I also believe a new formulation would restart the patent clock, and that could give back many years they were in development before. The real question that has to be answered before such action is taken is, our their currently better MAB's to do the job than N901.
Gary |
