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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks

NN 17.08

-1.1%

2:51 PM EST

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To: nick cash who wrote (2526)	12/10/1997 7:45:00 PM
From: nick cash	Read Replies (1) of 18016

well, as we all know nn broke 42 and as expected (see post #2526) headed to 35-36 area- break thru 42 was pretty quick and i didn't get out until roughly 40 5/8 (several different trades). 35-36 is another critical area dating back to 1993. the stock is technically about as broken as they get. a break of this area = a trip down to 28 as i see it. right now the stock is so short term oversold that i tend to think it will hold 35-36 and produce a dead cat bounce (my conviction is not that strong though given the blood bath we're seeing in techs and the action in nn. every 1/2 point bounce is being met with a slew of sell orders-it's ugly). without some good news though i question whether it will hold over the next couple weeks. co is now selling @ just over 20x greatly reduced fy99 estimates so the stock is certainly not fundamentally overvalued anymore. if it gets to 28 it will be a nice long term entry point though it could always go lower. stock prices always over shoot on the upside and downside. fear and greed ya know. as some know, nn had been the #1 position in my fund for quite a while and i am looking to get back in (i still actually have a little having sold 7/8 of the original position). but.......until there is some good news out of the co, there is no compelling reason for the stock to go higher. sorry not too much substance to this post as far as fundamentals mainly because i don't really know anything new. i will say that those expecting nn to sell ub to someone are dreaming. there is nothing to sell. i had serious reservations about this acquisition from the start (look back for my posts @ the time if interested). but then again what the hell do i know........i've been right w/regards to nn but, despite being 42% cash, i am losing 2% + a day lately and have had the worst 7 week stretch of my career by far (i was up >35% ytd then and am barely up 12% now) all while being over 35% cash the whole time. go figure. all imo only....nick

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