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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (182140)1/10/2014 12:34:13 PM
From: Dennis Roth2 Recommendations

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US Independent Refiners
Research Analysts Edward Westlake, Rakesh Advani, CFA
4Q Refiner EPS; In the Red Corner Product Margins, In the Blue Corner Crude Discounts
10 January 2014, 19 pages, sendspace.com

Bottom Line: Refiner EPS should come in above published 4Q consensus.
However, the Gulf bright spot may be less bright than leading edge
consensus and Mid-Con earnings could be weak. Hang on a second, didn't
WTI - Brent widen? What's going on - weren't earnings meant to massively
beat? The simple answer is that US product markets will be oversupplied in
winter demand doldrums until export ports are built - crude discounts are
important but so too are product market dynamics. A slightly more nuanced
answer is that the oversupply of light crude does not help heavy oriented
refiners as much as benchmarks suggest (e.g. resid upgrading markets were
weak vs LLS). We reiterate our view that a single minded investor focus on
crude discounts ignores product market economics.
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