You win, no question! Sorry I did not get to post an answer on the same day, been on the road a good bit.
Recently I have been reading one of John Bogle's books which I ordered for my girlfriend but have taken over myself--I have known about his index funds theory for years and thought it was true, but never did anything about it and for some reason never read any of his books. I reminds me of knowing about Berkshire for years before buying any--another blunder! I think he talks good sense, especially the bits about keeping things simple and making life as easy as possible. Have you read his stuff?
Anyway sometimes I wonder if you don't make the game harder than it needs to be.(On the other hand this may not be true--it may be the secret of your success--I can't tell.) But anyway, nat gas for example--it is a killer. Even Warren Buffett has been on the wrong side of a couple of energy trades in the last several years (some nat gas bonds, Chevron). Exxon bought Chesapeake at the top. No-one in the industry foresaw the amounts of shale gas that horizontal fracking would unleash. Lots of surprises. And will coal bounce back or is it a falling knife? Very tough. But with these two at least you can make a value argument and say they are too cheap, that sooner or later, in one or three or five years, they will be higher. In contrast the big macro questions are unknowable and trying to figure them out would drive anyone crazy. When Seth says that these times are the toughest, it doesn't mean he thinks the world is going to hell in a handbasket, but that he does not know what is going to happen--right? So why sweat it? Futurology is too hard, value investing get's the job done. Hold a slug of cash plus a few blue chips as insurance against being wrong. Well that is my method. And I wish I had stuck to it better! |
