Well, I bought in at 18 in October of this year, so I guess I feel a little better (!?), since misery loves company. I keep thinking that sooner or later this stock will pass the $20 barrier, but it sure has been tough. Wth hindsight, we could have made a lot of money trading the stock within the range it has been moving - even in the last 6 weeks. But, with my luck I would sell at $19.50 or so, and it would keep moving right on up to $25 or higher.
On AOL thread, very interesting discussion a month or so ago by MBA student (I believe) who did analysis of Eagle stock versus Home Depot. I believe he found all of the fundamentals good for Eagle, but one - the amount of inventory held by Eagle. It carries much more inventory than Home Depot does per store, and the question is whether the inventory reflects a broader array of inventory (or more expensive inventory), or weaker/dead inventory. Of cousre, even the less desirable inventory may still be a cost of providing the broad invetory selection it does for each store, and need not be adjusted downward in value.
Another question is insider trading, for which there was quite a bit in August or September.
I would appreciate any one's thoughts on the inventory and insider trading angles, and whether they are reasonable concerns or not.
Other than that, if Eagle continues to expand, with more stores, revenue and profits, the concerns about Home Depot will eventually dissipate and a substantial increase in price should follow. If it does not expand, one would think it would be a great take over candidate, and we should do okay there as well.
This is my non-expert assessment. |
