Hi Jaime, Wally,
Wow...both of you must have gotten up on the wrong side of your bed today!
Your collective analysis is too bearish. All of the company's "problems" are well known, and the 16G seating issues are already under repair.
The company is indeed "friendless", with none of the published analysts willing to comment now for fear of embarrassment. I have rarely found companies that are this loathed by Wall Street. Nevertheless, it is in such "loathing" that opportunities lie.
Barely six short months ago, everyone on this thread would have been profoundly excited by the possibility of NHTSA indicating that it preferred accelerated deployment of advanced systems and a large insurance "mouthpiece" opined that all auto's should be equipped with ITS. Both of those events have happened, but is it cheering I hear? Or, is it simply the "rasberries," as people are getting worn out when they should be rightfully thinking of what the company will be in a couple of years?
The fact that the company hasn't signed new orders yet may well be disconcerting, but with each day we come closer to the time-frame in which those orders should be announced. For what it is worth, I still see that as the February-June period in 1998, approximately 15 months or so ahead of the requirement that Standard 201 be observed by 31% of the US auto market (compared to only 7% beginning in the year starting on September 1st, 1998).
I think both of you are watching the tape too closely. Although it is difficult sometimes to exhibit patience (and management didn't help by losing control of the 16G manufacturing processes in the third quarter), the reason to own this stock is ITS and its current cousin technologies, such as ITTR.
As my father used to always remind me, when you are waiting for something to happen, it seems to take forever. However, once it actually *starts* to happen, it goes faster than you think. I think he was very wise in his way, and posts like the few you have made immediately prior to this one are more likely to be topical in six or seven months...but only *IF* there aren't any more ITS signings.
BTW, Wally, if those notes trade under par and you can capitalize your lungs (or other relevant body parts), I would buy them in *size*. At the price that the common would have to be to make that happen, the entire market capitalization for Simula would have to be roughly equivalent to the current year revenue rate in just another few weeks. If you think this stock *should* be trading at one times sales, you are both deluded.
*That* it might trade there is possible, but only because of tax loss selling at the end of the year. The fourth quarter is likely to be roughly breakeven, and I expect a small profit in quarter one. With earnings likely to be perhaps a nickel in that earnings period (which is totally discounted in the market even now), the numbers for the rest of the year are likely to average at least twenty cents per quarter, with a modest upward ramp throughout the year.
Nope, both of you are too bearish. You make money in our business by going against the prevailing "wisdom." Each of you is "wrong."
Have a good evening.
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