Market Share and earnings estimates thru 2001
WARNING! This material not intended for daytraders.
Here is my latest SWAG simulation....
The top table represents IDC's latest WW revenue by segment
projections. The bottom half represents forward projections
for Dell using Monte-Carlo analysis with a scaling factor
using IDC's numbers as a 1X baseline. The scaling factor is
a multiple of IDC's WW numbers and was derived from Dell's
public statements on their projected growth rates in each
segment.
They are:
Desktops 2X to 3X
Portables 1.5X to 2.5X declining to 1X to 2X in 2001
Enterprise (servers/workstations)
5X to 8X in 1998 declining to 2X to 3X in 2001
Net margin used a quasi Monte Carlo method varying between
7% and 8%.
* These growth rates represent a decline from past performance
* Notice yr/yr revenue growth declining to 25% in 3 years
* Notice the positive impact on ASP's in the face of declining
industry ASP's if Dell can grow the enterprise segment as
planned
* Puts Dell at $35B in 2001 by only doubling their current
market share from 6% to 12%
IDC estimates WW $$ value of Shipments by Form Factor
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Desktop $122,277 $134,315 $146,995 $160,895 $174,606
ASP $1,923 $1,843 $1,796 $1,759 $1,722
Growth 9.84% 9.44% 9.46% 8.52%
Portable $40,602 $45,455 $51,573 $56,307 $60,927
ASP $2,747 $2,629 $2,533 $2,423 $2,332
Growth 11.95% 13.46% 9.18% 8.21%
PC Entrprse $14,584 $17,690 $20,660 $23,366 $25,781
ASP $8,272 $8,107 $7,835 $7,681 $7,501
Growth 21.30% 16.79% 13.10% 10.34%
Total $177,463 $197,461 $219,228 $240,568 $261,314
ASP $2,215 $2,138 $2,091 $2,043 $1,995
Growth 11.27% 11.02% 9.73% 8.62%
Dell market share projection **non-IDC**
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Market Share
DeskTop 6.50% 7.84% 9.62% 10.75% 12.78%
Portables 4.40% 4.74% 4.96% 5.23% 5.38%
Enterprise 7.90% 15.11% 18.21% 22.21% 25.12%
ttl Mkt share 6.13% 7.78% 9.33% 10.57% 12.27%
Percentage of Sales
DeskTop 73.01% 68.56% 69.11% 68.02% 69.58%
Portables 16.41% 14.04% 12.50% 11.58% 10.22%
Enterprise 10.58% 17.41% 18.39% 20.41% 20.20%
Revenue (in Millions)
DeskTop $7,948 $10,530 $14,134 $17,296 $22,306
Portables $1,786 $2,156 $2,556 $2,944 $3,277
Enterprise $1,152 $2,674 $3,761 $5,189 $6,476
Dell's ASP $2,648 $2,952 $2,909 $2,953 $2,863
Totals (in Millions)
ttl sys rev $10,887 $15,359 $20,452 $25,429 $32,060
w/other Incme $11,866 $16,742 $22,292 $27,718 $34,945
yr/yr Growth 41.09% 33.15% 24.34% 26.07%
Profitability
Wgtd shrs OS 355 340 330 315 300
Net Mrgn 7.60% 7.67% 7.43% 7.64% 7.70%
EPS $2.54 $3.78 $5.02 $6.72 $8.97
Top line revenue and bottom line EPS projection for 2001 falls
in line with several industry analysts expectations as well.
Of course, things can blow up at any time. I expect Dell to
have a few quarters where they don't execute as flawlessly as
in the past causing the stock to possibly get hammered.
Then there's the possibility that Sony PlayStation's will supplant
PC sales and PC's will be toy prizes in cereal boxes, or,
the very real possibility that everything that can be invented
has been invented and technological advancements will stop
sending the computing price point into the toilet<gg>.
Over the long term however, this is the target. That's why I
stay long.
MEATHEAD |
