AOIC.ST, AOI.V, BLT.L, ESV, FET, GENL.L, LNG, PGF.TO, PMO.L, RELI.BO, RIG, TLW.L, TTI, WPL.AX,
Offshore Drillers,
Things We've Learned This Week
Africa Oil Corp (AOIC.ST)
Further Exploration Success Onshore Kenya
15 January 2014 ¦ 9 pages ir.citi.com
Further discoveries in the Lokichar Basin onshore Kenya – Africa Oil and Tullow
have announced two further discoveries, Amosing and Ewoi, in Block 10BB
onshore Kenya. This continues the 100% exploration success rate in the core
Lokichar Basin and gives us confidence that the basin could hold in excess of
1bn bbls. We continue to see Africa Oil as one of the highest impact exploration
stories in European E&P.
Africa Oil Corp (AOI.V)
Success Continues at Lokichar; Increase TP
15 January 2014 sendspace.com
BHP Billiton PLC (BLT.L)
Alignment & Flexibility - Upgrading to BUY
16 January 2014 ¦ 24 pages ir.citi.com
We are upgrading BHP Billiton from Neutral to Buy, and maintaining our target
price of £21.00. The company is now offering a utility-style dividend yield against
the UK market, while delivering a positive shareholder value creation. We think
the company's share price is likely to be driven by five key factors in 2014:
Valuation, Growth, Operational Efficiency, Capital Structure and Self Help -
collectively a powerful combination.
Ensco Plc. (ESV)
Newbuild Contract Down But Not Out
16 January 2014 sendspace.com
Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET)
Reducing Estimates and Price Target on Guidance Revision
15 January 2014 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com
FET preannounced 4Q13 EPS of $0.36-$0.38 (below guidance of $0.42-$0.46
initially). FET shares have traded down by slightly more than 4% following
today’s profit warning. We expect that the inconsistent or lumpy flow of
equipment deliveries, as well as manufacturing cost pressures, will continue
beyond 4Q13. However, we expect gradual growth in shipments in Drilling
Technologies and other product lines on the strength of bookings placed over the
last few quarters.
Genel Energy (GENL.L)
Alert: Progress towards sustainable exports, but FY14 guidance lower than expected
15 January 2014 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com
Genel Energy (GENL.L)
Updating estimates post-FY13 Trading Statement
16 January 2014 ¦ 9 pages ir.citi.com
Genel is making good progress with its key developments and should see an
acceleration in E&A activity in Kurdistan and internationally in 1H14. However,
Genel’s FY14 production guidance of 60-70k boe/d was below Citi (94k b/d) and
consensus (c. 80-85k b/d) expectations due to a more conservative view on the
timing of the major ramp up in oil exports. Our base NAV falls by 2% to
1,508p/share (from 1,533p/share) to primarily reflect the lower FY14 production.
Our price target falls slightly to 1,360p/share (from 1,380p/share). We maintain
our Buy rating.
Genel Energy plc (GENL.L)
Progress report: Guidance for 2014
15 January 2014 sendspace.com
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
Cheniere Suddenly Changes CFO, Some Things to Keep in Mind
16 January 2014 sendspace.com
Pengrowth Energy Corp. (PGF.TO)
Lindbergh Accelerates; Increasing TP
16 January 2014 sendspace.com
Premier Oil (PMO.L)
Look beyond 2014 guidance
16 January 2014 sendspace.com
Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Blocking and Tackling, But Rigs Remain Idle
16 January 2014 sendspace.com
Reliance Industries (RELI.BO / RIL IN)
On the question of timing
16 January 2014 sendspace.com
Tullow Oil (TLW.L)
Updating estimates post-FY13 Trading Statement
16 January 2014 ¦ 9 pages ir.citi.com
Tullow announced two further discoveries, Amosing and Ewoi, in Block 10BB
onshore Kenya and also doubled its discovered resource base to over 600m bbls
for the core Lokichar Basin. Tullow believes the overall potential from the basin
could be more than 1bn bbls. However, the positive news from Kenya was offset
by weaker than expected production from the Jubilee field offshore Ghana and
higher end-2013 net debt position of US$1.9bn. We maintain our Neutral rating.
Tetra Technologies, Inc. (TTI)
Knights of the Round Table
16 January 2014 sendspace.com
Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WPL.AX)
CY13/14 EPS upgrades, 7% div yield on avg. to 2020
16 January 2014 ¦ 16 pages ir.citi.com
4Q production of 23.2mmboe 2% below Citi, but Revenue 3% above given one-
off Pluto back-payments. We upgrade both CY13/14 EPS by 7% driven by PRRT
credit guidance, a lower actual CY13 exploration expense, & higher f/cast NW
Shelf LNG/domgas pricing given strong 4Q realisations. WPL flagged US$380-
400m of asset impairments for oil assets - we suspect reserve downgrades likely
in Feb-14, although only A$0.41/shr of DCF is at risk. Final div will be struck off
earnings pre-impairments. Buy.
Woodside Petroleum (WPL.AX)
4Q production in line; dividends up; Revising Estimates
M. Samter doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com
2013 production of 87mmboe was in line with guidance of 86-88 (Credit Suisse 86.6). Sales revenue of $5,776mn was 7% lower than 2012, as higher volumes of gas (relative to oil) were sold in 2013. WPL maintains its 2014 production guidance of 86-93mmboe. Dividends increased by excluding impairments of $380-400mn. For the purpose of calculating the 2013 final dividend, WPL has decided to exclude impairments from underlying EPS. Hence, our 2013 DPS increases to 252cps (from 236cps). FY13 EPS falls by 4%, mostly on higher impairments. We are raising our 2014-2015 EPS estimates by 2% each. WPL also expects a PRRT benefit of US$200-250mn and gains from asset sales of ~US$46mn (Mutineer & Power Play).
Offshore Drillers
Beaten, Battered and Bruised; DOWNGRADING ATW to NEUTRAL (from Outperform); Revising
Estimates & TPs
G. Lewis, 17 January 2014, 13 pages doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com
The offshore drillers hit the ground falling in 2014 underperforming the OSX by ~3% YTD. We expect lower gen floater dayrates to continue to sink in 2014, with new/next gen dayrates flattish. Under this backdrop stock selection matters! and we like NE (De-Risked NAV $32) and RDC (premium fleet trading at a discount). We are downgrading ATW to Neutral from Outperform (great company, but no near term catalysts and no dividend yield).
Oilfield Services & Equipment
Things We've Learned This Week
16 January 2014 sendspace.com |
