Brian,
I am hopeful that one of the US Banks can come up with some "creative" plans to allow Korea to finance their equipment purchases.
American banks might lend some money, but only if the collateral
was significant enough to offset any potential loss. I doubt if
many American banks need or want to take the risk at such low
US interest rates, what would be the point, however, if they
were to get a percentage of a fabs output, as well as, normal
interest (as an incentive) there might be some US bank investment
in strong companies that aren't already over-leveraged and debt
ridden. The problem seems to be that most of the Korean chip
conglomerates have borrowed very heavily in the past and are
having a tough time making payments on what they already owe
for the growth expansion of the last 2-3 years.
Any way I slice it, no matter what the angle, it looks like
things are going to slow down in the semi-industry for a while.
To much capacity, no money, lots of competition, currency
depreciation, U.S. export slow down, chip glut, etc., etc.
The Semi-mfg's will start seeing the slow down soon, within
1-3 months, they are at the mercy of world economic problems
and even though they have good products, they are like
a swimmer caught in a rip tide, paddling like hell but moving
in the wrong direction with the current.
BB
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