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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Bilow who wrote (764567)	1/18/2014 10:49:56 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) of 1573425

"why don't you get a PhD in atmospheric chemistry, write a paper on why the climate predictions were accurate, and get it published in Nature." Cuz somebody already did that. Forecasts of global temperature rises over the past 15 years have proved remarkably accurate, new analysis of scientists' modelling of climate change shows. . It predicted that the decade ending in December 2012 would be a quarter of degree warmer than the decade ending in August 1996 – and this proved almost precisely correct. nature.com The hindcast skill of the CMIP ensembles for the surface air temperature trend onlinelibrary.wiley.com Evaluating a 1981 temperature projection realclimate.org The IPCC explains... Reliability of Climate Projection Models FAQ 8.1, Figure 1. Global mean near-surface temperatures over the 20th century from observations (black) and as obtained from 58 simulations produced by 14 different climate models driven by both natural and human-caused factors that influence climate (yellow). The mean of all these runs is also shown (thick red line). Temperature anomalies are shown relative to the 1901 to 1950 mean. Vertical grey lines indicate the timing of major volcanic eruptions. (Figure adapted from Chapter 9, Figure 9.5. Refer to corresponding caption for further details.) ipcc.ch

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