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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 156.06+0.6%12:59 PM EST
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To: SemiBull who wrote (3704)12/10/1997 11:55:00 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
SemiBull,

"I wouldn't be afraid to see a 20% capital-spending drop in
1998, rather than the 15% increase expected before the crisis,"
Dauvin said.

I think this quote is bearish short term and
intermediate term. He is bullish long term - but nobody
is bearish long term. The decrease of
spending in 1998 and unclear picture for 1999 has to be
factored into your investing approach. Depending whether
you are trader, medium term player or long-term investor,
you will do different things after Dauvin's prediction.

Personally, I may play for further short term
downside. E.g. I may buy UTEK puts. Despite excellent
management and great products, UTEK is particularly
susceptible to downdraft in DD industry and unclear
situation of semi-equip industry. I would prefer to
buy puts of some other companies but unfortunately
they don't have options and I don't like shorting.

I certainly won't be as agressive buying
semi-equips as I planned to be. For one, some other companies
that won't have negative effects from SEA were unfairly
dumped. I will buy them. My buy levels on semi-equips just
moved lower - that's all. The further downside seems to be
more possible than it was a couple weeks ago. On the other hand
I won't move out of the sector.

BTW, watch tomorrow's reaction to CFMT's earnings.
It may be a buy opportunity.

Good luck

Raimondas
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