Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (56688)	1/20/2014 6:35:56 PM
From: realskeptic7	Read Replies (2) of 220616

Interesting. I am long the Dec 2014 CL (WTI) contract already, as of last week. Mind you, my trade has nothing to do with being able to spot some sort of non-gaussian trends in the price movement. (Haven't studied it, and it remains to be seen if I could figure that out <g>.) My trade is more on fundamentals. WS is extrapolating infinite future production from the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and other shale plays. So the CL strip is in strong backwardation. Hence, Dec 2014 is $5/bbl cheaper than spot. But, the Keystone south pipe is about to start flowing from Cushing (WTI delivery point) to the Gulf coast at a rate of 700K bbl/day. I think the Brent/WTI spread ($12/bbl) is due to close up a bit, and then traders are going to notice that extra $5/bbl hanging there with a scant 11 months to go. That's my bet. I could be wrong, and have been before...LOL.

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