BG.L, CAM. CNOOC, EC, GAZP.MM, PDN.AX, RELI.BO, Sinopec, TLW.L, Uranium,
European Refiners Bi-Monthly,
OT: Citi Global Mining & Construction Survey
BG Group plc (BG.L)
Believe it when you see it
Reiterate U/P, but slightly raise our TP to 1,200p (from 1,170p)
21 January 2014 sendspace.com
Cameron International Corp. (CAM)
Slimming Down in the New Year
21 January 2014 sendspace.com
CNOOC (0883.HK)
Management Sets Disappointing Volume transferable. Growth Target of 2-6% for 2014
20 January 2014 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com
Mgmt set an FY14 total production target of 422-435mm boe (up 2-6% Y/Y). The
ex-Nexen target was set at 353-366mm boe (up 1-4%) and target for Nexen was
set at 69mm boe, up from 61mm boe in FY13. Although target for Nexen implies
13% growth in FY14, this is because Nexen was consolidated for only 10 months
in FY13 and implies Nexen's production volume run rate will actually decline 6%
in FY14. On positive side, mgmt disclosed FY13 ex-Nexen production was
351mm boe, slightly beating guidance.
Ecopetrol (EC)
Upgrading to Neutral on the back of short-term dividend
17 January 2014 ¦ 10 pages ir.citi.com
Short-term dividend to prevail over long term fundamentals. We are tactically
upgrading Ecopetrol’s rating to Neutral from Sell and adjust target to
US$37/ADR. After 14% underperformance since Dec-13, we estimate EC’s
short-term dividend yield at 7.3%, a compelling level relative to global and local
peers. In addition, we do see upside risk to our dividend estimate in case
Ecopetrol prop
Gazprom (GAZP.MM)
Groningen production reduced; Another Rating Changes Today
European export record possible for Gazprom in 2014
19 January 2014 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com
As signaled late last week, on Friday the Dutch government decided to cut
production at the super-giant Groningen gas field in response to local citizens’
concerns with strong local tremors. Per Platts, production will be reduced from
54bcm in 2013 to 42.5bcm in each of 2014 and 2015 and to 40bcm in 2016. This
strengthens Gazprom's position in the European market and, after a record-
setting 2013, Gazprom's European exports could set a new record in 2014.
Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN.AX)
Is Paladin’s Future Depleted?
20 January 2014 ¦ 15 pages ir.citi.com
The sale of a stake in Paladin's Langer Heinrich operation may have given the
company significantly more breathing room against looming debt maturities, but it
does not change the challenging state of the uranium market and depressed
prices where we see no near-term recovery. With what we see as modest
earnings, a significant premium to valuation and no visible growth, we maintain
our Sell rating with a reduced target price of A25¢/share. We make changes to
our earnings forecasts and target price to reflect the sell-down of Langer Heinrich
to 75%, and a reduction in uranium price forecasts.
Reliance Industries (RELI.BO)
3Q: Modest Beat on Higher Other Income + Some E&P Surprises
I20 January 2014 ¦ 12 pages ir.citi.com
3Q: Slightly ahead — PAT of Rs55.1bn (flat yoy/qoq) was slightly above
our/street estimates driven by: (1) higher other income (30% of PBIT vs. 27% in
2Q), (2) a surprise jump in PMT crude production (recurring), and (3) higher KG
crude sales (one-off).
Sinopec - H (0386.HK / 386 HK)
Buying on refining turnaround
21 January 2014 sendspace.com
Tullow Oil (TLW.L)
2014: a better year with the drill bit?
Maintain Neutral / Reduce TP to 1025p (from 1097p)
21 January 2014 sendspace.com
Uranium
Down but for How Long?
20 January 2014 ¦ 20 pages ir.citi.com
Nuclear power was thought to be the base load, carbon free source of electricity
to power the future. This combined with rising fossil fuel prices began to turn
once staunch anti-nuclear governments began to reconsider the power source.
Post Fukushima this illusion has been shattered; natural gas prices have
dropped significantly and western countries have embarked on major programs
of renewable energy investment which threaten the traditional base/peak load
power generation model.
European Refiners Bi-Monthly
Cold over there, mild over here
21 January 2014 sendspace.com
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OT: Citi Global Mining & Construction Survey
4Q13 Global Mining Survey
2014 is the Year of Pricing Risk
20 January 2014 ¦ 28 pages ir.citi.com |
