BHI, BHP.AX, CAM, CAT oil, CIE, FET, GAZP.MM, GTE, HAL, PBR, PWT.TO, QGEP, RDC, STO.AX, TRMKq.L, VLO, VLP,
European Integrated Oils,
Asian Drill Bits
Baker Hughes Inc (BHI)
Continuing to Show Strong Signs of Progress
21 January 2014 ¦ 15 pages ir.citi.com
Managment guided to a better-than-expected NAM outlook in 2H14 and delivered
strong free cash flow when it reported 4Q13 earnings. We expect that BHI with
its renewed focus on capital discipline will use the growing cash build in part to
buy back shares in 2014 (with $350M repurchased in 4Q13). We reiterate Neutral
to reflect the growing evidence that the company is improving in terms of its
technology and execution although we consider the stock fairly valued after its
strong LTM return.
Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI)
The Time May Have Finally Come
22 January 2014 sendspace.com
BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP.AX)
Production Mixed, but US Onshore Driven Downgrades
22 January 2014 ¦ 10 pages ir.citi.com
DQ13 production was slightly weaker than expected, but FY14 guidance has
been maintained for key commodities. FY14/15 earnings have been downgraded
on higher US Onshore costs/D&A and mark to market of commodity prices.
Adoption of new accounting standards has exaggerated changes to
EBITDA/EBIT. BHP is Neutral rated with a A$38/share target price.
Cameron International Corp. (CAM)
Slimming Down in the New Year
21 January 2014 sendspace.com
CAT oil (O2C.DE)
Progressing with 2014 tendering campaign, more news to follow
21 January 2014 ¦ 7 pages ir.citi.com
CAToil reported significant progress with the 2014 tendering campaign today,
announcing a big multi-year sidetracking contract with LUKoil and the successful
marketing of 70% of its existing sidetracking capacity for 2014E. The tendering
campaign is currently in full swing and we expect more announcements to follow
in the coming days and weeks, likely generating supportive news flow around the
stock. We reiterate our bullish stance towards CAToil.
Cobalt International Energy (CIE)
CS Model Portfolio Trade Alert: Bicuar Success - Trading Buy
22 January 2014 sendspace.com
Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET)
Poseidon's Chariots
21 January 2014 sendspace.com
Gazprom (GAZP.MM)
Dividends back in the headlines, CEO in China: All 3 catalysts in play
22 January 2014 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com
Vedomosti reports the Russian government is still determined to increase
dividend payouts at state-owned companies to 25% of IFRS net income. Among
the blue chips, this would most prominently affect Gazprom, increasing payouts
in an average year by c40%. With the European supply/demand balance looking
good and Gazprom’s CEO in China today for negotiations, this puts all three of
our Gazprom catalysts in active play, and the stock remains a preferred play in
Russian oil & gas.
Gran Tierra (GTE)
Big Big Bretana; Increase TP
22 January 2014 sendspace.com
Halliburton (HAL)
Better Than it Sounded
22 January 2014 sendspace.com
Halliburton Co (HAL)
Alert: Strong Outlook Except for Latin America
21 January 2014 ¦ 7 pages ir.citi.com
Petrobras (PBR)
Positive Q4 expected, but short term events impact performance
21 January 2014 ¦ 11 pages ir.citi.com
Although we expect an improved Q4, we see risks for the stock from: (1)
expectations for PBR’s 5-year and 2030 business plan; (2) risk that 2013
dividend disappoints, and (3) negative price review of production rights. In
addition to Q4 results, we see positives coming from a fuel price hike in the next
3-months (+4%), along with 600kb/d of new production capacity start-ups in Q1.
We reduce our TP to $13.40/ADR (R$15.80/shr) driven by a higher discount rate
and changes to FX forecast.
Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (PWT.TO)
Signs of Cost Reduction are Good
21 January 2014 sendspace.com
QGEP Participacoes SA (QGEP3)
Postponing the catalysts, again
23 January 2014 sendspace.com
Rowan Companies (RDC)
Downtime Days and Offhire Time Driving Earnings Lower
21 January 2014 sendspace.com
Santos (STO.AX / STO AU)
4Q production in line, curious bump to D&A
23 January 2014 sendspace.com
TMK (TRMKq.L)
Preferred Play In Russian OFS: Leveraged To Rising Complexity
22 January 2014 ¦ 24 pages ir.citi.com
TMK should be viewed as a Russian oilfield services company, not a pipe
company: The Russian OFS market accounts for the bulk of TMK’s gross margin
via high-margin seamless products, linking it to Russia’s rapidly rising horizontal
and sidetrack drilling, but a potential shale oil boom. We set TMK at a Buy with a
Target Price of $16.9/sh and make it a Best Idea in the Russian OFS sector.
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
Capture Rates Seem to Drive Large EPS Beat
22 January 2014 sendspace.com
Valero Energy Partners LP (VLP)
Strategic GP to Drive Rapid Growth: Neutral on Valuation
21 January 2014 ¦ 38 pages ir.citi.com
We are initiating coverage on Valero Energy Partners with a Neutral rating and
TP of $36.50, based on our view that the partnership is close to fairly valued.
While we expect VLP to aggressively grow the distribution ~20% annually
through 2017, units are up ~52% since its initial public offering in Mid-December.
At these levels, VLP currently trades at a ~110 basis point premium. As a result,
we expect units to provide investors only moderate upside from current levels.
European Integrated Oils
4Q13 Preview: Far from a bright quarter
23 January 2014, 32 pages sendspace.com
Asian Drill Bits
2014: Crucial Year to Call Whether Jackup Cycle Will Extend to 2015
22 January 2014 ¦ 28 pages ir.citi.com
An Extended Newbuild Cycle — 2014 is a critical year to make a call on the
sector as duration of previous cycles has never exceeded four years therefore
the burden of proof would rest with those of the view that the current cycle (which
commenced in 2011) is likely to extend beyond 2014. This is our non-consensus
view and is the key sector call we believe investors have to make at this juncture
since we think demand can persist into 2015 and Keppel is best positioned to
ride the cycle. |
