There has been a lot of discussion on the thread focused on LU as the acquiring entity for ASND. Concern is expressed as to when LU can do a pooling of interest deal and whether LU ought to buy big networkers before smaller companies or vice-versa.
Somewhat lost in all of this is that the focus is not LU. The focus is ASND, specifically, ASND's shareholders.
If ASND has been shopping the company (my assumption), then it in large measure should not care about LU's limitations and LU's business plan. Rather, what ASND mgmt wants is, essentially, (1) the best price for ASND's shareholders and (2) within the timeframe desired by ASND mgmt.
If ASND took a dog and pony show to NT, LU, CPQ, Siemens and what-have-you and got offers of 40 (payable today), 35 (payable next October), 48 (payable in late December) and 0 (payable never), then I would assume ASND would take the 48 payable in December.
I also would assume that, after the first round of offers are in, ASND would proceed with a second round, trying to up the price. Once that was done, mgmt and the BOD would meet and determine which if the proposed deals, if any, should be presented to the shareholders.
The bottom line is that ASND mgmt is supposed to be working to obtain the best price and terms for its shareholders. The focus should be on what deals ASND might be able to round up, on what terms, and in what timeframe. Not on what LU can or cannot do.
Knowing that LU really can't do anything until October and really doesn't want to pay more than 40 (per rumor), while helpful in assessing its strength as a suitor, is not helpful in assessing how ASND might rate LU vis-a-vis any other offers that might have been sought.
And, if it is true that ASND is not shopping, has not shopped and will not shop the company, has not hired an investment banker and has no plans to do anything, then that is almost the same as saying that ASND rates LU as a zero in ASND's way of thinking. I believe the contrary to be the case, but as it is my opinion against Ashby's word, he probably is the one to be believed.
I don't know if I'm making any sense here. Anyway, tomorrow is 12/11, the day that CPQ has its 2B shares authorized. If any kind of pre-packaged deal has been put in place between ASND and CPQ (after ASND reviewed all the alternatives and decided that this was the best of the bunch), then 12/11 certainly is a propitious day to announce something, particularly during Internet World.
When nothing happens tomorrow, I'm going to have to make a lot less noise about the acquisition theory. At least without some kind of realistic clue that something is afoot from ASND's perspective.
Gary Korn |
