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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (765672)1/25/2014 1:34:18 AM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) of 1575142
 
Hi Wharf Rat; Still no predictions. The oldest reference cited (in this old paper which is from 2010) is from 1992:

"The prediction is old. In 1992 Manabe and coworkers, in running a changing CO2 experiment, noticed that the Antarctic sea ice cover increased with increasing CO2. They traced this to increased fresh water on the Antarctic ocean, which derived from increased precipitation -- snow. They also observed in their model that the Arctic ocean sea ice experienced a marked decline in thickness, and major loss of extent in the summer, but not so large a decrease in the winter. At the time they wrote, it was still being debated whether there were trends in the Arctic or Antarctic sea ice covers."

But the beginning of the rise in Antractic sea ice cover is 1948 to 1979 as is referenced in this link cited by your post (Zhang 2007):

This mechanism is the main reason why the Antarctic sea ice has increased in spite of warming conditions both above and below during the period 1979–2004 and the extended period 1948–2004.
psc.apl.washington.edu

So when they ran their experiments in 1992, they were already looking at sea ice increases from 1948. They were predicting a trend that was already 1992-1948 = 44 years old.

-- Carl
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