I think it's up to Roche to predict sales, not IMGN. Watch what Roche has to say more than IMGN. More importantly, look at all the trials Roche is running to expand the ways Kadcyla can be used. It takes little imagination to see Roche intends Kadcyla to greatly expand on Herceptin sales in two ways. One it will replace Herceptin across the board over time as it's superiority will be proven in all applications. It costs more, people live longer, if not indefinitely, so the sales per patient are dramatically higher. Finally it's being tried on other cancers, like colon, where Her2 is found in smaller degrees than breast, but after identifying those who have sufficient Her2 identifier levels, it may be found to be very effective.
In time, I believe Kadcyla sales will grow to something in excess of $20 billion annually, which is the threshold for IMGN to make a billion with 5% royalties. It may take many years to reach this level, but I believe the potential is there. Of course their are no guarantees something better won't come along, but for now Kadcyla is proving itself effective virtually in every trial they put it in.
Gary |
