| | | APC, FPM.L, GAZP.MM. NE, Iraq & Iraqi Kurdish Oil and Gas, EIA Electric Monthly
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC)
Tronox Survey: A Woodlands What To Do
27 January 2014, 23 pages, sendspace.com
Our take: Judge Gropper published his long awaited opinion in the E&P "Trial of Century" on December 12, but there remains deep uncertainty related to APC's ultimate liability related to Tronox. We have conducted another investor survey to gauge embedded expectations around APC's exposure to Tronox as well as buyside recommendations to management on capital allocation, optimal production growth levels, and settlement vs. appeal. Our two key findings-(1) 29% of respondents would like to own APC shares, but are on the sidelines given tail risk. This is 6 percentage points higher than in our prior survey; (2) The current valuation embeds $6.84 billion of Tronox liability. Given the wide swing factor in potential outcomes, the buyside is clearly in favor of a settlement.
Faroe Petroleum (FPM.L)
Novus disappoints; TP reduced
27 January 2014 sendspace.com
Gazprom (GAZP.MM)
Results: Solid 3Q13 reported, looking at FCF generation
23 January 2014 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com
Revenue of $36.6bn was in-line with Citi and Interfax consensus estimates, while
EBITDA of $13.1bn and net income of $8.1bn outstripped our forecasts by 7%
and 39%, respectively, and were ahead of Street estimates by 4% and 3%,
respectively.
Gazprom (GAZP.MM)
3Q13 Conference call: Positive indications on dividends, European exports, and EBITDA guidance raised
24 January 2014 ¦ 10 pages ir.citi.com
Two of our three key Gazprom catalysts (strong European exports, a China deal,
higher dividends) figured prominently on the 3Q13 call. Dividend guidance was
confirmed at 6-8 RUB/sh, and management resistance to the IFRS-based payout
may be dropping. 2014 European export guidance was set at a minimum of 150-
155bcm, and last years’ record 162bcm could be exceeded. Additionally, 2013
EBITDA guidance was raised by 5%-7%. Gazprom remains our preferred play in
among Russia’s blue chip oil & gas names. We update our model to catch up to
recent news, including the record 2013 European exports, as well reductions for
most cost items that, following 3Q, appear to be coming in below our forecasts.
Noble Corp (NE)
NE Confirms Slowing Rig Demand in Deep Water
23 January 2014 ¦ 13 pages ir.citi.com
NE shares down more than 8% following market commentary. Although evidence
of the slowing pace of tendering activity has been gathering for months, investors
reacted strongly to Noble’s comments about a “pause” in the growth of demand
for deepwater drilling services. We cited deepwater rig rate declines in lowering
our rating on NE from Buy to Neutral late last year. But a similar message from
the company itself kicked off a new round of selling.
Iraq & Iraqi Kurdish Oil and Gas
Food for thought - Let's have a debate
27 January 2014 sendspace.com
EIA Electric Monthly
Surprising Drop in November Coal Burn; Should Improve in December
23 January 2014 ¦ 10 pages ir.citi.com |
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