AR, ATHL, AWE.AX, BG.L, CRZO, OSH.AX, TGL.TO,
Key Takeaways from our Visit to Kurdistan,
LNG Pricing in Japan,
Coal 4Q Preview
Antero Resources (AR)
Marcellus Growth Overshadows Slight Utica Midstream Delays
28 January 2014 ¦ 9 pages ir.citi.com
Athlon Energy (ATHL)
Howard Co. Results Could Unlock 30% Upside
27 January 2014 ¦ 15 pages ir.citi.com
AWE Limited (AWE.AX)
BassGas Partial Sale – Reduces Capex Risk & Realizes OK Price
28 January 2014 ¦ 11 pages ir.citi.com
AWE has announced the sale of an 11.25% interest in BassGas/Yolla and a
9.75% interest in Trefoil to Hindustan Petroleum, for A$80m cash plus a further
A$5m milestone payments pending execution of MLE works. AWE's interest in
BassGas will reduce from 46.25% to 35% post deal, and it estimates a A$10m
post-tax loss on the asset sale. The deal is subject to both FIRB & JV approval,
the effective date is 1 July 2013, but we understand it is likely to take ~3 months
to complete.
BG Group (BG.L)
Déjà vu on growth but asset base provides valuation support
28 January 2014 ¦ 15 pages ir.citi.com
Greater uncertainty on growth outlook, but asset base provides valuation support
- the downgrade has again stemmed from BG’s underperforming base business.
We believe BG’s key growth assets (Brazil and Australia) remain on track. On
our revised forecasts BG trades at 13.4x 2015 P/E and offers 14% CAGR
cashflow growth out to 2020. We believe the asset base of the company is now
deeply discounted by the market, value that can potentially be realized through
portfolio activities or by industry M&A.
Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. (CRZO)
Upgrade on Improving Oil Growth Outlook
Upgrade to Neutral.
29 January 2014 sendspace.com
Oil Search Ltd (OSH.AX)
CY14 production upgraded, but EPS downgraded on opex / DD&A
28 January 2014 ¦ 14 pages ir.citi.com
OSH upgrades CY14 production guidance 15-20% to 12-15mmboe given
expected LNG timing, we upgrade 8% to 14mmboe, 1st LNG likely mid-14.
Guidance for CY14 opex & DD&A higher than expected, leading to a net 5% EPS
downgrade for CY14, also 5% downgrade to CY15 given our read on long-term
opex & DD&A. Our CY14/15 EPS forecasts now 11%/15% below the prior
consensus. LNG capex trending below budget, but JV maintains project on
budget. Strong 4Q led to 14% upgrade to CY13 EPS. Maintain Neutral.
Mark Greenwood | Dale Koenders | Vishesh Pachnanda
TransGlobe Energy Corp. (TGL.TO)
Reserves Decline; Decrease TP
28 January 2014 sendspace.com
Key Takeaways from our Visit to Kurdistan
European E&P, 28 January 2014 ¦ 20 pages ir.citi.com
Citi hosted an investor trip to Kurdistan where we met with KRG ministers, the
British and Turkish Consul Generals and a number of E&P companies operating
in the region. We also visited DNO's Tawke field, the Fishkabur pipeline
infrastructure and Genel Energy's Taq Taq field. Overall, the trip highlighted the
positive progress towards sustainable oil exports from the region and the
continued strong relationship between Kurdistan and Turkey.
LNG Pricing in Japan
Will the 'Top Runner' Program be expanded to LNG?
29 January 2014, 18 pages, sendspace.com
Coal 4Q Preview
Mining for Opex and Capex Savings In a Tough Met Environment
27 January 2014 ¦ 50 pages ir.citi.com
The met coal price recovery that we had anticipated unraveled in 4Q, leading to a
fall in spot benchmark hard-coking coal down to $132/tonne by yearend and a
further decline to the most recent level of $125/tonne. As expected, this will add
pressure on coal producers to find new avenues to lower their cost structure at
existing mines or potentially idle higher cost operations. |
