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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana

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To: deeno who wrote (6328)1/29/2014 1:57:18 PM
From: Bill Wexler  Read Replies (3) of 6370
 
This isn't just a pullback.

Many reasons I think 2014 will not be kind to stocks.

Top of the list: We've reached a sort of "peak consumer credit"...so retail is going to take it in the chin real soon. next round of earnings reports will blame the shortfall on the weather, but the truth is a lot more disturbing.

Next: Margin debt at all-time highs.

Next: The most speculative part of the market...the small caps...at all-time nominal highs (perhaps in real terms as well), while volume is fading into oblivion. Check out the chart of IWM price vs. volume over the past two years.

Next: Where are the bears? Oh right...there aren't any left.

Next: The inflation chickens are coming home to roost. We've exported it to the emerging markets for years, now they are going into currency/bond convulsions.

Next: The shale oil plays are depleting fast while capex continues to rise. Soon enough, oil prices will continue their long term climb.

I could go on.
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