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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana
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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6329)1/29/2014 2:54:33 PM
From: deeno  Read Replies (1) of 6370
 
All good stuff. just curious

"Margin debt at all-time highs."

what make you think this is caused by the long side of the market?

"We've reached a sort of "peak consumer credit"...so retail is going to take it in the chin real soon"

noticed most of the retailers way off their highs and some hitting year lows. Not already or mostly in there?

" Where are the bears? Oh right...there aren't any left."

Agree. all the non perma bears I read have an "up" 2014. Very worriesome.

"The most speculative part of the market...the small caps...at all-time nominal highs (perhaps in real terms as well), while volume is fading into oblivion."

big time YES I agree. Long way to get normal here.

"The inflation chickens are coming home to roost. We've exported it to the emerging markets for years, now they are going into currency/bond convulsions."

I'll take your word for it

"The shale oil plays are depleting fast while capex continues to rise"

the "plays" or the companies or the reserves no idea what your getting at.

"Soon enough, oil prices will continue their long term climb"

with no one buying, EM dying, market correcting big time, likely seeing fed inaction for at least the short term on your above thoughts I dont see oil rising. There is plenty of oil available for many lifetimes certainly the next 1 one in the 70 to 80 dollar range.

I Do think "consenses" is way to negative on "commodities" but the circumstances will likely be unknowable (weather?).

As goes January so goes the market...... Thanks for your input. We agree more than we disagree.
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