"I used to believe in market timing, and I don't anymore"
agree, in general. Im always in, give or take 15% cash. But if markets are at year highs and my stocks have hit their targets I'll let some cash languish for an opportunity.
"Its also a market of stocks"
yes. again in general. Have a few models that I hold measuring the overall performance rather than the indivdual performance. the theory works or it doesnt. individual stocks stand on their own. but I do look at the industry, so that might constitute timing. Currently looking at some Drillers (SDRL) people seem to hate them, just not sure hate them enough. getting close.
"Even if the averages fall, there are constant bull/bear plays."
only "play" for fun, not real money.
"Dynamically hedging is always a good strategy"
Again generally dont hedge. your in or your out of an idea. if you want to hedge just put less money in it. betting the opposite never made any sense to me. I do have long/short positions for relationships that I feel for some reason are out of kilter. More of a reversion to the mean play rather than LOWES sucks and HD doesnt. I might short Lowes if i hated the industry, I might buy HD because I like the industry. Do both? never made sense to me, market are to efficent for that. If I was worried about losing, well then I wouldnt go in in the first place.
"what worked in 2008-9 is not what will deliver the best ROI in 2014. IMHO"
nope cant grow to the moon. if it were the same, everyone would do it.
"This market could be a falling knife, OR it could be a winter correction and opportunity"
I agree an inflexion point where maximum gain and loss can take place.
I've been rewarded more often being positive then being negative. I was curious how Bill came to his conclusion of a bear market. In normal pullbacks i find people are fearful and wait for more pullbacks. If I see lots of money pouring in as a buying opportunity, lets just say my targets become more firm. Niether would I add or pull back in a general sense.
I will say this, should we rally back to new highs a good number of my investments will "mature", in that event I might very well take a vacation. I can afford to leave some for everyone else. |
