| | | Yes, and thank you for posting that info, you have to keep in mind that the Coppock curve is a very, very, very, very long term indicator, although it does have some value... since the Coppock curve is such a long term indicator, it works more like a lagging indicator but it does give you some navigational sense long term just where the market is at any time...
I keep that indicator current... I have the Coppock curve monthly data going back to December 1911, that's more than 100 years of data on this curve... below you can see where I highlighted in yellow since late 2010 the months when the curve turn downward even though the market continued higher... so, this curve could turn bearish for a month or for several months, but it doesn't mean the market has topped in any way...
The component Tom McClellan is looking at is the DJIA Coppock Unchanged figures on the far right side of this chart... yes, the curve turned lower this past month, but it also turned lower for one month in December 2012... so, you have to realize this curve can move in both directions and give many false starts... this is why Coppock developed the Unchanged figure, this would let you know that the momentum may possibly be turning based on a monthly close above or below that Unchanged figure, but you still have to keep an eye on it because without additional monthly follow through, you can misread it completely... so, be careful...
Of course, this could be THE top, but when you look more closely at this curve, you can see how iffy it can be...
Probably, the safest way to use this curve more near term is to consider the long position trade to be less risky when the market is above the Unchanged figure and that the short position trade less risky when the market is below the Unchanged figure...so , I would suggest using this curve along with other market indicators in your toolbox...
GZ |
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