TO ALL: My most profound apologies for this late arrival. AOL greeted me this morning with some garbage about not being able to recognize the SI URL and it took quite a while to reestablish contact.
I will also apologize for what I believe will be a rather lengthy comment and opinion. I ask that all of you take what I say first and foremost as not having any personal bias to or against any poster on this thread or his or her position with regard to the merits or lack thereof of RMIL.
First as promised the last TA for RMIL - 12/11/97: Sadly what my technical work has been indicating for sometime seems to be coming to pass. Ever since the last run up to 3.75 following the news of the pending cash infusion, the technical chart pattern showed nothing but extreme deterioration. The upside breakout including a gap opening and expanded volume on the move up normally portends a continuation of that move, especially since it also took place with an accompanying breaking of a strategic downtrend line. The return to a price level below that breakout point and the ensuing severe decline in trading volume was the first indication that that move was not what it seemed to be. The continued attack on the key support levels on an almost dailiy basis and then the subsequent downside penetration of the 1.625 level was another confirmation of the technical weakness that had developed. With today's action the stock is simply confirming that technical weakness. If volume would pick up substantially on the downside we could experience a climactic selling day and perhaps see the opportunity for a reverse rally to back over 1.50. Keep in mind however that the trading that took place between $1 and $2 and techically was classified as a support level now becomes a supply level on any rally. If a climax selling day is not reached soon the stock will most likely continue its day to day drift downward and may return to below .50.
That said and done let's look at my personal feelings about what many seem to think doesn't count. That is the fundemental picture.
For those who have been following my many discourses on this thread, you may recall that early on after I sold out my position, I voiced my concerns about the validity of many of the claims made by way of PR news releases. To say that I was severely chastised by many of you would be to put it mildly. The desire to protect one's own interests is not only natural but completely defensible. Even if the remarks were openly hostile I chose not to take them personally. Lest anyone think that it was a remark or comment by them that is leading me to leave the thread rest assured that has no bearing on this decision. I know full well that what I am about to say will be taken by some as one individual's personal opinion, by others as an attack on their financial interests and by others as a put down on their intelligence. I say nothing with the intention of hurting anyone but only express what almost half a century of involvement in the securities business has taught me and certainly not with the intent to declare it absolutely correct and that any contrary opinion is absolutely wrong. I have learned much by reading the SI threads and this is one old dog who is always willing to learn new tricks, providing they are really new.
At the outset of the discussion about a short squeeze maneuver by a group of frustrated shareholders who were tired of MM manipulation and misbehavior, I was certainly intrigued by the concept of calling in certificates and forcing short covering. In addition, there were news releases by the management of OVIS that supported the action of the group that chose to call itself the "cartel." However, when in using my professional training and background to investigate the scenario that was being presented , I came up with little credible evidence of what was presented as fact as being so. As time passed, the story changed. As dates emerged from the company they passed without the information promised being published. As new dates given were approached new tactics appeared which were then cited as reasons for additional delay. Those of you who are willing to accept these reasons or excuses are putting your money where your mouth is and you will if you turn out to be right, and I fervantly hope you are, will be beneficiaries of great financial gain. Should you turn out to have misplaced your confidence in Morgan, Bretton, Riley and OVIS/RMIL
I gain no satisifaction from having my thinking prevail.
In closing, as ever I wish nothing but success for you all and may the forthcoming Holiday Season bring each and every one of you all the best. I thank those of you who bring words of praise for whatever I may or may not have contibuted to the thread as well as to those who choose to disagree with my thinking or approach to investing.
Bon Natale, Joyeux Noel, Felice Naivdad, Happy Hannukah and for later on Happy Ramadan.
Talbot Lincoln Watson |
