| | | >> Hamburger stand.
Do you have any idea what it costs to open a "hamburger stand"? Forget the franchise outfits -- you're looking at 1-1.5 million on one of those. More if you want to have any hope of success.
Smaller ones, not so much. If you can lease a suitable building (pretty hard to do) you're probably going to be looking at 1/4 million cash on the low end, assuming you don't need alcohol (e.g., in a BBQ or pizza joint you pretty much have to serve beer). More likely 1/2 million. If the raise the minimum wage to $10 that will drive up startup costs by $20,000 - $50,000 cash. Easy. Go to a bank, right? No fucking way. No bank loans for fast food joints. Cash on the barrel head.
Back to your original post:
>>> 1) People get affordable health insurance and quit to start a hardware store.
Not one in 100 persons who lose their jobs will "start a ____ store". Probably not 1 in 300. Even fewer will be successful, less than 20%. Obviously, there is a pretty big hole your "analysis".
>>> 2) An unemployed person gets their job.
Uh, not really. As you will notice from CBO's projection of labor force participation, it gets lower and lower during this time. Why? Because of mechanization and automation. We simply don't need people to take orders at McD's anymore, so they will attrit those workers over this period. We don't need drink fillers. We don't even need university instructors, because online universities will supplant almost all American universities over the next 15-20 years. There is, quite literally, nowhere to hide. Except maybe for IT, Nanosciences, and Medicine.
3) the new hardware store hires people.
The one out of 300 persons who started a new business, the 20% of those. So, you may have 1 in 1500 people starting and making some modicum of success out of a business. Most of those will never employ more than a few employees. NONE will ever employ over 50, on average. Because under Obamacare it is almost impossible to expand a business beyond 50 full time employees due to the incremental cost to the existing business. Adding the 51st employee will cost you $250,000 or more. Not many businesses can do that.
>> That is a net gain!!!!!!!!
>> And a reduction in the unemployment numbers.
Obviously, thoughtful analysis isn't your deal. There is, quite simply, no way in hell you can get from the ACA to increased employment. Which is one reason CBO is predicting a massive decrease in labor force participation during the same period. |
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