Juniper,
My understanding is that the SE Asian countries have been giving loans based not on supply and demand (business logic), but on cronyism (relatives, and/or the good-ole-boy system, and Nationalism), meaning for instance, that they may have financed the building of a fab for DRAMs on which the owner of the fab may not make money. Further, this had made their financial system a disaster.
I think what it will take to stabilize is: a great deal of belt-tightening/austerity system and a complete re-vamping and re-thinking of their financial system -- loans should be based on business sense, not, "oh, you're the President's wife, so you get the loan."
Also, if they will change to a market based philosophy, I feel it will make this game (the semis, semi-equips) easier to understand, because when pricing goes to he!! on chips, chip makers would pull in their horns and not build fabs as quickly, until Supply/Demand would become more balanced.
My opinion only. Near-term, the semi-equips will probably not perform so well (duh?!, as if we haven't noticed), because their customers are suffering. Long term, more and more chips is the wave of the future, so they'll do well.
Regards,
Teri
PS. At some point, the semi-equips have been priced for doom and gloom, and that's the million dollar question. Someone, please ring a bell when we hit "no brainer" prices. |
