PT, if you knew what you were talking about, you would be dangerous. :-))) It's fundos, not valuation theories that have driven the stock. The same analysts who were touting the stock at 13 are touting it today. No, the move to 32 was not driven by NXTL "being found" by analysts. NXTL's story has been widely known for several years, although many like you doubt its validity. The stock moved based on fundos, namely, quarterly adds, nationwide footprint, no roaming charges, and per second billing after the first minute. Granted, momentum drove the stock too far too fast but that doesn't denigrate the potential of this company. Remember, Craig McCaw antes up at $16 or so per share. Do you think he expects the stock to be worth less when the company is one of only 3 or 4 wireless companies with a nationwide footprint? He's looking for some multiple of his investment, and not a tiny percentage. NXTL's footprint is a reality, not a fiction created by some aggressive broker. Ditto direct connect. Ditto $70 arpu. Ditto one million users. Ditto largest number of adds in the industry last quarter. Ditto ADVANTAGE NEXTEL.
Tell me, since no one else has direct connect to offer mobile work groups, where is NXTL's PCS competition for high users going to come from? ADVANTAGE NEXTEL.
The biggest risk NXTL faces in the short term is market risk. Exhibit A is yesterday and today. But notice what happens when the market turns: NXTL is front and center as smart investors lap up the stock.
In the long term? NXTL's biggest challenge will be building an organization fast enough to take care of the explosive growth its experiencing. With Akerson in the driver's seat, we don't need to worry about cost control or focusing on goals; he's on top of those issues. ADVANTAGE NEXTEL.
Next year when NXTL turns cash flow positive, the boo bears like yourself will still be "Yeah, butting" except the subject will be lack of earnings, not negative cash flow and the coming competition from the commodity PCS crowd. The stock will be north of here, probably above 40 (after touching 55), and I'll still be here counting profits.
PT, since you don't like the valuation theories that others use for NXTL, why not share your valuation technique for NXTL and let's see how it holds up in the light of this thread.
Arnie
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