| | | Huge expectations ... all 7x fcf multiple ex-cash of it. Remember, cash balance is much smaller now, and you're talking about multiples of current earnings. Apple has toned down their own forecasts for iPhone & iPad profits... any expectation for earnings growth is heavily reliant upon profits from new products. I don't need to point out how common it is to hear the investment community speculating about the incredible new products Apple is about to release that will take the market by storm and how that is part of their rationale for owning the stock.
Delivering a device that is more than a display extension is a given, unless you are speaking of Samsung. There is enough information out there to suggest Apple has much more in mind, if you have been paying attention. There isn't much information on Google's potential device. I'm not suggesting that display extension will be the only function, but I'm guessing that it will be the primary function, and that additional capabilities won't be anything revolutionary. If Apple, Google, or anyone else releases a watch that costs $300+ and does mostly the same things a phone can do, while requiring the phone to be in-pocket, I just don't see it taking off. It's just my guess... there's no data on this, as no one has made a notable try.
I'm an avid runner. I've ditched my MP3 player, my GPS watch, and now I just run with my phone (despite it being a little bigger than I prefer, having tracking + timing + music + phone + etc all in one makes it worth it). I'd be the first person to buy a watch accessory that would allow me to secure the phone in a pocket (or bag if hiking, biking, similar) and interact with the watch instead, as it would be more comfortable. So I'm not saying I can't fathom appeal for extensions of existing functions. But I would never consider paying $300 for such a thing if my phone itself runs $500. There are certainly people with $1,200 budgets for such things, but they're clearly not price sensitive. |
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