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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (56613)2/24/2014 10:49:37 AM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (3) of 57684
 
I find all of the stocks you mentioned interesting but I can't seem to be bullish on them due to their excessive price to sales ratios. Even if they continue to grow at 100% a year, when you pay 40 times sales, you need a minimum of 3 to 5 years before the valuations start to come into line. Most aren't expected to grow revs that fast, more likely in the 50% per year range.

For example, we bought SPLK at $31/share but I wouldn't buy it here at $90/share, even with the solid growth they've shown over the past 2 years. Trading at 35 times sales seems a bit excessive, even with their solid gross margins and revenue growth. Similarly, we purchased CRM the last time it fell below $40, but would certainly hesitate to pay $64, even if they are much more in line at 10 times sales.

I simply scratch my head at WDAY (p/s 45) and FEYE (p/s 57). Great products, and from what I can see, very solidly run but based on current growth expectations, I just can't pay a 4 year forward valuation for them.

DATA (p/s 26) seem much more in line but still pricey.
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