| | | IDC Sees Big Drop in Smartphone Shipment Growth in 2014
By Ben Fox Rubin - 9:33a ET February 26, 2014 (Dow Jones)
Growth in worldwide smartphone shipments is expected to slow significantly in 2014, as the devices start to
saturate several mature markets, according to researcher International Data Corp.
IDC's Ryan Reith said 2014 will be "an enormous transition year for the smartphone market," with growth
declining "more than ever before."
Smartphone shipment growth should reach 19.3% to a total of 1.2 billion units, down from a 39.2% rise in
2013, when smartphone volume surpassed 1 billion units for the first time, IDC said.
By 2017, IDC predicts smartphone shipment growth will slow into the single digits, with 2017 growth of 8.3%
and 2018 growth of 6.2%.
As mature markets, such as North America and Europe, become saturated and global growth slows,
cellphone carriers and device makers are already looking for ways to sell hardware wherever they can,
including emerging markets. The result, IDC said, will be rapidly declining prices, with worldwide
smartphone average selling prices expected to drop to $260 by 2018 from $335 in 2013.
Also, over the next several years, the pecking order of operating systems isn't expected to change much,
IDC reported. Google Inc.'s (GOOG) Android system should maintain its leading role, with a 76% market
share by 2018, down from 78.9% expected in 2014. Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) iOS should keep its No. 2 spot,
maintaining 14.4% market share in 2018, nearly flat with 2014 predictions. The Windows system should
grow its share to 7%, up from 3.9%, while BlackBerry's (BBRY, BB.T) share should drop to 0.3% from 1%,
IDC said.
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