NG in storage stands @ ~1200 BCF as of yesterday. Convert your heating demand into weekly withdrawals & project to ~4/1/'14, the EOY # will be? I am looking to 934 BCF in storage @ the EOS. Demand will have pulled 2900 BCF over the Winter season. Now fast forward to Supply, as in refill over ~210 days, the last few years, 2100 BCF have been injected @ ~10 BCD/day on average. Everything worked out just fine for the LDC's & the consumers.
I suspect the LDC's, the storage Operators as going to attempt to purchase closer to 2800 BCF over the same ~210 days in 2014. If I am anywhere close to being correct in my projected refill volume, increased need for NG translates to an additional 3.3 BCF/day of NG, as in new Supply-Production-on average between 1/1/'14 & 11/1/'14. Where will that new Production come from? It will not come via the bit, followed by the frac! The wells WOP-Waiting on Pipelines-that come on line need to # in the many hundred, as in close to 500 completions that are then connected via the new pipelines & producing by ~10/1/'14. Given ~0.5 BCF/day for a new pipeline out of the Marcellus, I must imagine ~ten (10) new pipelines will magically materialize. Is this scenario a pipe dream? The other Unconventional Shale Basins, no magic trick like the Marcellus. In fact, Eagle Ford new NG lines are heading Southwest towards another set of consumers-Mexico- that have contracted NG at rather competitive pricing is what I learned during several Christmas parties & luncheons. |
