"We're still only at 1997, maybe early 1998 levels of speculation"
3 d printing, MJ stocks, social media its all there. But sure your above might be right. I guess my action stems from the thought we are one story away from a bear market. Not so much and event, as the begining of a systemic problem, not yet defined. The Bull has been running a long time. People are used to gliding over bad news like speed bumps. Since you'll never know in advance you can just count how many dominos you think are standing next to each other. Disappointment is hammered. 10% move because of Ukraine? As I said, if we go another year, Ill take more off.
"We got a long way to go before we get there. Not saying we will get there. And Bill could have been right"
Yes I think all your bases are covered here. Frankly Ive never bothered trying to time the market, at least on the downside. I never found it profitable when I look out 20 years. You either beleive in the US or you don't. Betting you don't, well, if I was right, I'd be the richest dead guy in the cemetary, whats the point? Taking 20% right now in one swoop probably has more to do with my getting older. Well that and seeing so many of my investments reach my targets years in advance to my expectations. If I was back in my mid 30's I probably wouldnt even be watching.
"But he wasn't, and now his late January comments just look silly."
hindsight is 20/20 should the market drop 5,000 points today would it still look silly? But, yes there is a fine line between being early and being wrong. One or two months is still early to me. Still hope he's wrong and your right. I'm more in than out. |
