| | | 2mar$, thanks for your biotech takes by two posts. am good now.
re china, quick observations based on some knowledge and some alleged facts the veracity of which i cannot guarantee but deem 'could be', and if true, ohwhoawee, especially the geewhizbang re trust products / shadow banking, as the gap between common understanding vs 'could be' reality is so wide, that should the gap close towards the 'could be', watch out for the market moonshot
(1) enough of the truly wealthy (i.e. ex-coal mine owners) are getting tax audited, and are responding by having to cut short overseas holidays and delaying domestic trips, to answer questions, questions, and more questions. coincidence? maybe. but if not ...
(2) canada cancels 43K mainland chinese millionaire investor status immigration applications due to supposed canadian domestic opposition. could be, even if to simply raise the bar above the current 'too cheap' hurdle. but what if canada and beijing actually do deals together? door closing for awhile.
there is a chinese saying about wolves in the home ... must shut the door then to beat some sense into the wolves
(3) the anti-corruption campaign is underway big time, and many are terrified for good reasons, like they embezzled, stole, pilfered, extorted, and otherwise gotten ill-gotten-gains
(4) the national registry of property ownership has been tee-ed up, and all real estate ownership would be put into a single data base tagged to owners no matter which city they reside. heretofore real estate ownership registration are strictly local data bases. there is no time to hide ownership, and some folks w/ 200 apartments may have worries
(5) the solution decision to the trust products / shadow banking issue is being worked on, and if announce per 'could be', as in 80-95% of the depositors get 100% bailed out and happy to invest another day, lessons learned, at cost of 20-25% of the total trust pool, and
bail-in for 5-20% of the filthy rich, holding 75-80% of the deposit; bite the big one, w/ all real estate assets exposed, bank accounts id-ed, canada door shut, audit questions keep on coming. would they be demonstrating on the street?
(6) the officialdom, once done w/ the bail-in / bail-out, would have good and good-enough assets to sell, and almost assuredly shall make a profit, as they bail out at 20-25% of total cost of the underlying projects
(7) 75-80% of the overall population are set to go with the just tee-ed up rural land reform where heretofore no-transaction and all of a sudden but gradually becomes money-good collateral, to help w/ inland progress, urban-rural gap closing, have/have-not delta hedging, etc etc
all that one-off collateral gradually tee-ed over, what? the next 20-25 years? some kind of wonderful.
(8) all of the above allow for serious money printing w/o having to add much to food inflation, allowing for currency debasement w/o having to worry about street riots.
(9) china still needs, per imperative, to create 50-500 cities enabling urban societal organisation (work, living) to 250M folks over the course of next 15-20 years.
(10) revolution indeed, if 'could be' becomes actual. robin hood-ism can work. stealing from the thieves may be popular per rule by making up rules.
message end, please dispose after reading.
cheers, tj |
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