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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Richard Russell who wrote (11371)12/11/1997 6:17:00 PM
From: sepku  Read Replies (3) of 25960
 
>>>It could be a year to 18 months before it crawls back up to the 30s if ever.<<<

I very strongly doubt that. There is no way a company experiencing the growth that Cymer is, would stagnate for that length of time. Your pessimism is reminiscent of the 1996 semiconductor summer slowdown. People were saying the same thing then -- only for the average semi stock to return triple-digit returns in the next 12 months.

I remember back in April/June when Cymer was trading around 35 -- 45 (pre-split, of course). It had moved as high as 60 before retreating significantly. The float at the time was a mere 6 million shares. The number of shorts accounted for an amazing 50% of those shares (you can confirm this with the financial data at www.iionline.com). What happened? CYMI turned the corner for another round of rapid growth and was catapulted into the 80s...much of that was a combination of momentum investors and short-covering. The company has beaten 2 Q's since. I'm confident they will beat the next Q as well.

My point is that what is happening to Cymer now is the opposite extreme to when the momentum investors were driving this stock all the way to 98 on a multiple way ahead of itself. Now the shorts are repeating the April/June scenario. When sentiment changes, we'll be pushed over 30 easily. I'd expect this move before March.

Style Pts.
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