If Wichita State doesn't lose in their conference tournament, then Arizona, Wichita State and Florida have locks on a #1 seed. Neither Arizona nor Florida has to win their respective tournaments to be "in". However, the fourth #1 seed is wide open. I think that only Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Villanova, Virginia and Duke have a shot at that final top seed. And for those last 6 teams, it's a case of having to win out to qualify. Any loss spoils the chances. With that as a given, who wins out? Probably not Syracuse who has a nasty problem of playing down to the level of the competition. Wisconsin has a rough road ahead, as does Duke, Virginia and of course, Syracuse (again). Villanova has some decent chance of going all the way as does Kansas, but Kansas is already disrespected by sportswriters and needs a lot of help to vault up in the rankings... So, my best guess is that either one of the ACC teams or Villanova gets that final #1 spot.
A more interesting thought might be, are any of the #1 seeds this year capable of losing to a #16 seed? I think yes, very much so. Every potential #1 seed has some sort of problem, ranging from injury (Arizona) to inconsistency (everyone except Florida and Wichita State) to lack of schedule strength (Wichita State).
Could be a lot of upsets this year at all seeding levels...
EK!!! |
