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Strategies & Market Trends : New US Economy Policy
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To: Arthur Tang who wrote (93)12/11/1997 6:52:00 PM
From: mc  Read Replies (1) of 435
 
Is it your position that the anticipated shortfall in Social Security in the next 10-20 years will not materialize and that we'll continue to run a surplus in Soc. Sec. even as the average age of the population increases greatly?

Also, what impact do you think the shift away from pensions towards 401k\457k savings plans has had on the equity and debt markets?

If the markets are being driven by demand from 401k accounts as baby boomers stuff retirement cash away, what will happen after they retire and start pulling money out? Will we see a few decades of stagnation in the financial markets? If so, where will the needed liquidity come from for the U.S. to maintain it's position as an innovator in technology and manufacturing?

I will agree with you that we are seeing a demographic shift in employment in some sectors and will continue to see that change as long as the wages are tempting enough to pull people into the workforce. However, at some point - and I'd think we have to be getting close to it right now - we'll have serious labor shortages in some important industries. We're already seeing it in technology intensive sectors. Companies are being purchased just for their workers.

You also mentioned in a previous post that you were looking into the idea of growing ourselves out of the debt problem. I interpreted it basically to be that as long as there is no deficit and we continue to grow then each year the debt will become less and less important in the overall picture. If my interpretation is incorrect, please let me know. My question, however, is what was the result of your analysis of this?

Thanks and good luck,

Gary
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