Evan, good summary.
I would emphasize that the 17,000 per week was the initial New Prescription rate when the news first hit last year. This dropped and stabilized for many months at 10,000 New Prescriptions per week where it is now. The greatest point is that this company has done $100,000,000 in sales in three quarters without spending a dollar on marketing. A truly phenomenal start.
Now they are going to start the "Love Boat" marketing campaign (even mentioned Howard Stern), and attempt to ramp up production soon enough to produce enough to match the new demand, here as well as overseas. There were two questions as to marketing strategy, they are not going to release details now.
As far as a response to Viagra, well, they have as little peer-reviewed data on Viagra as the rest of us. They can't respond to anecdote and rumor, which is one of the reasons why I can't believe those on this thread who think that the delay of Viagra will be a boon for MUSE. VVUS stock is being killed by uncertainty, that uncertainty will only be eliminated after the release of Viagra and the PFE studies and data. If anyone really, deep down, is afraid of what Viagra will do to MUSE, they should sell VVUS, and go trade PFE on the Motley Fool with BigKNY3. Sorry, I digress, but this has always been a peeve of mine.
As for the Dr. Greco letter (one kg weight trick), the response was that this letter is not science, it's not a peer-reviewed published study, no controls, it's a non-issue.
By the way, Zebra spoke with Dr. Greco today, I think he realizes now how much a little fame can spoil your week. He speaks english well and promised to fax me more material, I'll release it here if it seems useful, haven't got it yet.
I don't know what this CC will do to the share price, but I am satisfied that this has been an unforseen consequence of rapid growth in a heavily regulated manufacturing environment. As they pointed out, this is not just a pill. You can't find any operators in the world who have more than a years experience manufacturing intra- urethral suppositories. The ones with a years experience are all working for VVUS now. New ones must be trained, and this while trying to move a factory, and get regulatory approval all at the same time. No one else in the world has ever manufactured this product before.
So for two months, production is slowed, well if they weren't selling all they make, this would not affect earnings. Yes, the demand picture looking forward is not obvious to anyone, so the risk is still there, but I see the upside much greater than the downside here. Particularly at 12 5/8 a share.
Zebra |
