| | | Please support the statement the Dems thought they had won
Here's one more. Is this enough for you? (make sure to read the last paragraph)
Fundamentally, the district, left vacant by the death of longtime Republican Rep. C.W. Bill Young, looks competitive but has a slight Democratic tinge. Barack Obama carried it 52 percent to 48 percent in 2008, but he had a more narrow victory four years later, when he won 50 percent to 49 percent.
But fundamentals are only a small part of the Democratic advantage in the district this year. Campaign-related factors should strongly benefit the Democrats, as well.
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Democrats have rallied behind Sink’s congressional bid so completely that 2012 Democratic nominee Jessica Ehrlich, who wanted to run in the special election, was forced out of the contest.
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The calendar also favors the former Florida CFO, who is clearly more prepared to launch a top-tier campaign after the polls close next week than her eventual Republican opponent will be. While a mere eight weeks separate the special primary and the special election, the window is even narrower than that, because absentee ballots for domestic voters are tentatively scheduled to be mailed on Feb. 4 and early voting begins March 1, according to the website of the Pinellas County supervisor of elections.
Given all of the advantages that Sink has — the district, her experience and proven electoral success, her money in the bank and her united party — and the problems the GOP nominee will face, shouldn’t the likely Democratic nominee be a clear favorite to win the special election, getting her party one seat closer to the majority in November?
The answer is “yes,” and if this seat had become open in 2006 or 2007, there is little doubt that Democrats would have been solid favorites to win.
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On the other hand, since most nonpartisan handicappers and analysts have for years expected this seat to go Democratic when it became open, a Republican victory in March would likely say something about the national political environment and the inclination of district voters to send a message of dissatisfaction about the president. And that possibility should worry the White House.
www3.blogs.rollcall.com
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