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Non-Tech : Investing in Real Estate - Creative Opportunities
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To: the navigator who wrote (2160)3/14/2014 8:24:28 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (1) of 2722
 
Well right now some of the country is far overvalued basically the move up and higher end areas of any big cities of the north east and west coast plus any resort type area where the 1% love to work and play. The rest of the country is either now at fairly valued or still significantly undervalued. They are making a big mistake trying to inflate this via low rate. Making the number of PITI vs equivalent rent and your income fit at 4.5% 30 year rates can overinflate home values by 50% or more when this comes to an end. Sadly I can see easy low down financing for J6P come back with a vengeance at exactly the wrong time to inflate things even more and keep the party going a few years past 2016. Got to look at the 2016 election and who has power, most to gain or lose as part of the dynamic. Also looking at the typical RE cycle that lasts 16-20 years. We topped last two times nationally about 1989 and 2006. Looking at the bottoming process last cycle it lasted from roughly 1992-98 while this cycle it was 2009-11. Nationally singe home prices are already back to levels of late 2004 of about $170k. Same thing in high priced LA at $525K. Meanwhile Chicago is lagging by about 25% more the norm in many markets

zillow.com

So if we condense the 17 year cycle somewhat to 10-14 years looking at 2016-2020 IMHO
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