Compaq Message Board - Msg: 2944702

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Technology Stocks : Compaq

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To: Dulane U. Ponder who wrote (11009)	12/11/1997 10:19:00 PM
From: Obewon	Read Replies (4) of 97611

There is only one major factor affecting CPQ: uncertainty. Just look at the posts on this board last month and compare them to the posts now. Last month even the CPQ nay-sayers were positive on the company. The only arguement was who was growing faster: Dell or Compaq. There was a bedrock of certainty that everyone was doing great. In the past few weeks as the Asian financial crisis has grown to hysterical proportions (reminds me of the still ever-present El Nino effect), this certainty has broken down as skepticism has entered the market. People have started to realize that $20B companies are are unlikely to be able to generate 30% earnings growth ad infinitum. Sure, this quarter is in the bag. It could even have a major upward surprise. This is not a Compaq phenomenon but a market cusp. Even if CPQ hasn't put out any bad news, too many big high tech names have put out warnings lately. The herd mentality has taken hold and the best thing to do is to sit back and watch Wall Street analysts start worrying about their jobs and "reputations". OB Guess what? 30% Market returns don't happen every year! Maybe we are slowing down as the market attempts to return to its average 10% per year.

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