Steve -
Back in mid-November, someone on this thread asked for TA comments/information. I have tried to do this to the best of my ability, and you take potshots at it.
It is a well-documented fact that ADX (part of the DMI indicator system) does show strength of trend. The DMI indicators show the direction of the trend.
I can easily show that the probability of making a profitable trade after an uptrend is established is well over 50%. Conversely, I can easily show that the probability of losing money when trading against an established downtrend is well over 50%. I'm not saying I know the future, Steve, but can you give me one reason why I shouldn't trade with the probabilities, instead of against them?
Also, your football analogy is flawed. In the analogy, the football games are over, and the scores are final. However, in stock trading, only the first half is over, and I'm simply using that score to predict who will be ahead when the game is over. I've not done a statistical analysis of football, but I bet the odds of the first half winner winning the final game is also above 50%!
Loren
P.S. If you choose to respond, please try to be more polite... I love a polite, logical discussion. :-) |
