Latest beltway wisdom on the senate. Increasing likelihood goes Rep. From Mike Allen's morning newsletter.
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CONVENTIONAL WISDOM SHIFT: For the first time, top Republicans tell us there is a better than 50 percent chance that they'll take the Senate. The turning point was Rep. Cory Gardner's late-February decision to run in Colorado, putting another blue/purple state in play. And last week's House loss in Florida suggested that Dem headwinds may be worse than assumed. GOP strategists who had put takeover chances at roughly 10 percent last fall -- and 45 percent this winter -- now say it's more like 55 percent. With primaries ahead, so the field not set in stone, each of the strategists added a caveat to the effect of: "We can still [mess] this up."
The conventional wisdom is that Speaker Boehner will stay if Republicans take the Senate, which would raise hopes for sending more legislation to the President (for veto!), and would retire if the Senate stays in Democratic hands. Republicans are starting to worry about an expectations gap if they control the entire Capitol, arguing that it would still be difficult for a conservative Republican House and a moderate Republican Senate to pass ambitious legislation.
SIREN - Cook Political Report switches Senate races in Alaska, Louisiana and North Carolina from "Lean D" to "Toss-up" - Senior Editor Jennifer E. Duffy: "Sens. Mark Begich in Alaska, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, and Kay Hagan in North Carolina are moving to the Toss-Up column. In each of these races, polls show the races generally within the margin of error tied. Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas, who has been in the Toss-Up column for months, has comparable numbers to these incumbents.
"Democrats say that Pryor has not been so much as a single point behind in any of their polls in months, suggesting that rumors of his demise might be premature. At this point it has become something of a D.C. parlor game to guess which of the four - Begich, Landrieu, Hagan or Pryor - is in the most trouble. At this point, it is pretty much splitting hairs. All four are locked into very close races, but none is dead.
"When GOP Rep. Cory Gardner announced his bid against Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado three weeks ago, we moved that race to Lean Democratic [from Likely D]. With former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown's announcement that he would challenge Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire also goes into the Lean Democratic column [from Likely D]." facebook.com |
