If I felt like an upset was reasonably possible, including a possible buzzer-beater scenario, given the point value of such in this pool for picking underdogs (which makes the pool way more fun IMO), I picked the underdog. If I thought an upset were somewhat possible, but was on the fence about whether it was reasonably likely, I picked the favorite, on the assumption a close game, including those that went to OT, would favor the favorite. Put another way, only if I thought an underdog were reasonably likely to win in regulation, no matter how, would I bet on them.
As to what is "reasonable", as I've said repeatedly, I look for teams that have no fear of each other. For example, Dayton, being from Ohio, likely had zero fear of Ohio State given every kid on Dayton likely went to school with someone who ended up at State. Worse for State, if there were one team Dayton really wanted to beat in the entire tournament, it would be State. My son, OTOH, picked Dayton because of their winning streak. I also look for low seeded teams with lopsided records. They are sick and tired of "who did they play" questions, and tend to dominate in the early rounds. Lastly, if a low seed somehow gets a game close to home, they get energized by it and all their fans showing up.
- Jeff |
