The conclusion of your quoted article:
But Obama doesn’t even seem to recognize this truth. In his major Brussels address Wednesday, the very day Russia seized the last Ukrainian naval vessel in Crimea, Obama made vague references to further measures should Russia march deeper into Ukraine, while still emphasizing the centrality of international law, international norms and international institutions such as the United Nations.
Such fanciful thinking will leave our allies with two choices: bend a knee — or arm to the teeth. Either acquiesce to the regional bully or gird your loins, i.e., go nuclear. As surely will the Gulf states. As will, in time, Japan and South Korea.
Even Ukrainians are expressing regret at having given up their nukes in return for paper guarantees of territorial integrity. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum was ahead of its time — the perfect example of the kind of advanced 21st-century thinking so cherished by our president. Perhaps the captain of that last Ukrainian vessel should have waved the document at the Russian fleet that took his ship.
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Reading the tea leaves -- a possible future:
The EU will become militarized as a result of this... led by ("Ta Taa..." (the sound of trumpets)) the Germans.
They already have a non democratic system overseeing and ignoring the EU parliament. It just has to change direction, and due to this threat on its doorstep, it will IMHO.
This will take a while, but we will have 4 major powers, USA and Western Hemisphere, EU, Russia, China, with perhaps shifting alliances between those 4 as described by Orwell.
Weather the tone of rivalry will be military or commercial remains to be seen... perhaps both.
So much for the coming century.
And this, Putin will have created on his doorstep.
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The US population (IMHO) is rightly tired of war at this point... and thus the US is not a reliable ally in facing up to those who are not tired of war. This will be seen by the EU, the Saudis, Japan, Korea, Australia, NZ and Israel... (however, how self reliant can Israel be?). |
